Monday, September 27th, 2010, 5:37 am

by Jon Prior

Sales of distressed properties will peak in 2011 at 2.3 million transactions before falling to more normal levels at 850,000 in 2016, according to a report from John Burns Real Estate Consulting.

Because lenders are transferring more of the shadow inventory of foreclosed and defaulted mortgages into real property ready for the market, analysts at John Burns estimate these properties will account for more than 40% of the all resale activity through 2012.

Many market analysts have predicted home sales and prices to trend downward again without the homebuyer tax credit. How fast and deep the market falls depends on how financial institutions manage the flow of these foreclosed and REO homes onto the market.

According to John Burns, a typical market shoulders 6% to 7% of distressed sales taking up the resale market. "We are closely tracking an increase in REO activity this year, which will result in a peak for distressed sales next year. This forecast significantly impacts our belief that prices will fall 8% to 11% (depending on the index) through 2012," according to the report.