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Teri Pacitto Group

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Volume 16, Number 7 Economic Highlights for the Week Ending February 26, 2010

MONDAY, February 22nd
Expectations remain in place for the Federal Reserve to maintain low interest rates for an extended period despite last week's surprise hike in the discount rate, which is the rate the central bank uses to lend to other banks. The fed funds target rate, the rate at which banks loan funds overnight to other banks, is expected to remain unchanged near zero through most of this year. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is scheduled to deliver his semiannual testimony to Congress later this week which will likely confirm the Fed's plans to keep interest rates low.
TUESDAY, February 23rd
The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index rose 0.3% in December from November and was down 3.1% from December 2008. The monthly increase was the seventh in a row for the index while yearly declines have slowed appreciably in recent months. 14 of 20 major metro areas tracked in the index posted monthly price gains. Nationwide home prices are down nearly 30% from their May 2006 peak similar to what they were in September 2003.
Consumer confidence slumped again in February, falling to 46.0% from 56.5% in January. Prolonged weak economic conditions, especially in the labor market appear to be weighing heavily on consumers’ attitudes. Relief for the beleaguered consumer will come in the form of job and income growth, improved credit flows and firmer home prices and sales, which may still be a long way out.
WEDNESDAY, February 24th
The MBA mortgage applications index fell 8.5% to 549.5% for the week ending February 19. The purchase index fell 7.3% on the week and is now 21.4% below its year ago level. The refinance index fell 8.9% last week and was down 28.0% from its level last year. Contract mortgage rates were up in the past week with the 30-year fixed climbing by 9 basis points to 5.03%. Mortgage application activity remains at a low level reflecting recent stagnation in the housing market.
New home sales plunged 11.2% in January to an annual pace of 309k after a slight upward revision to December sales to a still dismal annual rate of 348k in December. Sharp declines in new home sales over the last several months have entirely erased modest gains made last year. Nevertheless, the new home market is expected to strengthen mildly in the spring supported by the extended home buyer tax credit and low rates. An improved jobs situation would support sales in the later part of the year.
THURSDAY, February 25th
Jobless claims increased 22k to 496k for the week ending February 20 as the prior week was revised higher. The recent upward bias in joblessness may be related to severe winter weather in many parts of the country. Even so claims remain elevated indicating that there has been no significant increase in hiring.
FRIDAY, February 26th
Existing home sales plunged 7.2% in January to an annualized pace of 5.05 million following a 16.2% drop in December to a rate of 5.44 million. The last two monthly declines followed several months of strong sales gains that were primarily driven by the first-time homebuyer tax credit. According to the NAR, first-time buyers comprised 40% of January sales compared to 51% of sales in November. A second straight month of substantial declines in existing home sales was not what was expected for the housing market to start the year. What is expected is another wave of foreclosures this year. Current policy measures that are in place now will help the housing market navigate the downside in the near term with home sales to recover later this year under improved economic conditions.

Stock Market Close for the Week
Index Latest A Week Ago Change
DJIA 10325.26 10402.35 -77.09 or -0.74%
NASDAQ 2238.26 2243.87 -5.61 or -0.25%


WEEK IN ADVANCE
The labor market is front and center in the coming week with several private sector employment surveys, weekly jobless claims data and the all-important employment report for February, due out on Friday. The labor picture will be skewed to the downside in this round of indicators because of severe snowstorms in the Northeast during the month. It is hoped that labor market weakness will be temporary.
Key Interest Rates Latest 6 Mos Ago 1 Yr Ago
Prime Rate 3.25 3.25 3.25
Fed Discount 0.75 0.50 0.50
Fed Funds 0.12 0.16 0.20
11th District COF 1.828 1.599 2.757
10-Year Note 3.61 3.46 2.91
30-Year Treasury Bond 4.56 4.23 3.60
30-Yr Fixed (FHLMC) 5.05 5.14 5.07
15-Yr Fixed (FHLMC) 4.40 4.58 4.68
1-Yr Adj (FHLMC) 4.15 4.69 4.81
6-Mo Libor (FNMA) 0.38438 0.92500 1.6600

Sources: IBC's Money Fund Report; Bank Rate Monitor; Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco



Upward pressure on interest rates
Downward pressure on interest rates
No pressure to change interest rates
News worthy

Post Title

November 6, 2009, Congress voted to extend and expand the First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit program.  There’s 100 days left to claim it.

The expiration date of the up-to-$8,000 tax credit has been pushed forward to spring, requiring homebuyers to be under contract for a home no later than April 30, 2010, and to be closed no later than June 30, 2010.

In addition, “move-up” buyers were also added to the program’s eligibility list meaning you don’t have to be a first-time home buyer to be eligible for the tax credit.  If you’ve lived in your home for 5 of the last 8 years, you meet the IRS requirements.

Move-up buyers are capped at a total tax credit of $6,500.

The tax credit’s basic eligibility requirements remain the same:

  • You can’t purchase the home from a parent, spouse, or child
  • You can’t purchase the home from an entity in which they’re a majority owner
  • You can’t acquire the home by gift or inheritance
  • All parties to the purchase must meet eligibility requirements

The new law includes some notable updates, however.

First, the subject property’s sales price may not exceed $800,000. Homes sold for more than $800,000 are ineligible.  And, also, household income thresholds have been raised to $125,000 for single-filers and $225,500 for joint-filers.

And lastly, don’t forget that the program is a true tax credit — not a deduction.  This means that a tax filer who’s eligible for the full $8,00 credit and whose “normal” tax liability totals $5,000 would receive a $3,000 refund from the U.S. Treasury at tax time.

The complete list of qualifying criteria is posted on the IRS website.  Review it with a tax professional to determine your eligibility.  Then mark your calendar for April 30, 2010.

There’s just 100 days to go.

Post Title

November 6, 2009, Congress voted to extend and expand the First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit program.  There’s 100 days left to claim it.

The expiration date of the up-to-$8,000 tax credit has been pushed forward to spring, requiring homebuyers to be under contract for a home no later than April 30, 2010, and to be closed no later than June 30, 2010.

In addition, “move-up” buyers were also added to the program’s eligibility list meaning you don’t have to be a first-time home buyer to be eligible for the tax credit.  If you’ve lived in your home for 5 of the last 8 years, you meet the IRS requirements.

Move-up buyers are capped at a total tax credit of $6,500.

The tax credit’s basic eligibility requirements remain the same:

  • You can’t purchase the home from a parent, spouse, or child
  • You can’t purchase the home from an entity in which they’re a majority owner
  • You can’t acquire the home by gift or inheritance
  • All parties to the purchase must meet eligibility requirements

The new law includes some notable updates, however.

First, the subject property’s sales price may not exceed $800,000. Homes sold for more than $800,000 are ineligible.  And, also, household income thresholds have been raised to $125,000 for single-filers and $225,500 for joint-filers.

And lastly, don’t forget that the program is a true tax credit — not a deduction.  This means that a tax filer who’s eligible for the full $8,00 credit and whose “normal” tax liability totals $5,000 would receive a $3,000 refund from the U.S. Treasury at tax time.

The complete list of qualifying criteria is posted on the IRS website.  Review it with a tax professional to determine your eligibility.  Then mark your calendar for April 30, 2010.

There’s just 100 days to go.

Short Sales

Bank of America Revises Short Sale Policy
Bank of America, one of the country’s largest mortgage lenders, says it is loosening its policies on short sales in response to the U.S. Treasury Department’s announcement last week that it would increase incentives for lenders to work out short sale deals.

The government’s plan is a boon to banks, says David Sunline, BofA’s real estate management executive, because it provides guidance when there are multiple liens, a potentially litigious issue for lenders.

In the past, the bank followed Fannie Mae’s policy of giving second lien holders about 10 percent of the second mortgage balance in a short sale. Now when it holds the second lien, BofA will accept 5 percent of the net proceeds of the short sale, Sunline says. When it is the first lien holder, it will offer 5 percent to the holder of the second lien.

Sunline says home owners considering short sales should contact the bank within five days of getting an offer on the home and expect its cooperation as long as the offer is within the range of other sales in the area and the borrower can demonstrate financial hardship.

Source: The New York Times, Bob Tedeschi (05/15/2009)

Should I Buy a Home Now?

I’m often asked if this is a good time to buy a home.  Some clients are concerned that home prices may fall further than they have already.  They are assuming that the best course of action is to wait for the bottom in the market and then buy.  The problem with this approach is that you don’t know where the bottom is until you see it in the rear view mirror, meaning until you’ve missed it!

Home prices are one factor in determining your cost of ownership, but so are interest rates and financing availability.  Even though interest rates have gone up in the last six months, they are still near historic lows.  Since your monthly mortgage payment is a combination of paying down your principal and paying the interest owed, if home prices come down a little further but interest rates go up, it could cost you even more to service a mortgage on an identical home!

While a home is a major investment, it is also the center of your personal life.  It’s important to live in a home that reflects your taste and values, yet is within your financial “comfort zone.”  To that end, it may be more important to lock in today’s relatively low interest rates and low home prices, rather than to hope for a further break in prices in the future.

Please give me a call if I can be of any assistance in determining how much home you can afford in today’s market.

Contact Information

Teri Pacitto Group
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage
883 S. Westlake Boulevard
Westlake Village CA 91361
805-494-4663
805-370-9917
Fax: 805-367-4163